IGC Webinar: Trends in coarse grains markets for food and feed: barley, sorghum, oats and millet
"While coarse grain markets usually focus on maize, here we will look at feed and food consumption for barley, sorghum, oats and millet, highlighting trends and developments.
Barley is one of the major world cereals, coming third after wheat and maize, with world output in 2022/23 reaching 152m t (+5%), with productivity gains more than offsetting a drop in harvested area. Total consumption is placed at 150m t, with 70% consumed by the feed industry and 19% by the industrial processing sector. At 30m t, global traded volumes in 2022/23 (Jul/Jun, excl. malt) are forecast to decline to a three-year low, at least partly attributed to reduced buying from China, particularly from Ukraine.
Sorghum production in 2022/23 is pegged at 60m t. Total 2022/23 consumption is forecast at 61m t, with around 31m intended for food and 23m for feed. After reaching a multi-year high in the previous season, trade could be smaller by around one-quarter y/y on smaller imports by China amid smaller expected exportable surplus in the US and Argentina.
Oats output has been declining over the decades, with production in 2022/23 totalling around 25m t, including a 50-year high in Canada on much bigger than average outturns. At 2.7m t, trade in 2022/23 could reach a record high driven by strong demand in the US. Albeit trade is largely shaped by US purchases, the current season sees a marked increase in Chinese imports.
The United Nations General Assembly declared 2023 the International Year of Millets, with millet crops growing on arid lands with minimal inputs and being highly resilient to changes in climate. In 2022/23, global millet production totalled 30.8m t, with India being by far the largest producer. With crops mainly consumed domestically, global traded volumes are negligible.
A number of international experts will look at the year ahead, highlighting potential risks and challenges over the coming months with respect to production, consumption and trade prospects."